My Thoughts on the Second, Third, and Fourth Ranked Teams Loosing

Note: I wrote this on 11/15/16 for Sports Illustrated Kids, and it wasn't published

The last time the number 2, 3, and 4 ranked teams in college football lost on the same day was October 19, 1985. But for the first time in over 3 decades, it happened again, on November 12, 2016.

On that day in 1985, in a 1 vs. 2 clash, Quarterback Jim Harbaugh’s second ranked Michigan Wolverines lost to first ranked Iowa, on a field goal as time expired. This time, Harbaugh was on the sideline, ranked third in the country, and lost to Iowa on a field goal as time expired. Only this time Iowa wasn’t ranked. The other differences? In 2016 the kick was 4 yards longer and made by a freshman as opposed to a sophomore.

How do these losses impact the college football playoff?

1.     Alabama

Alabama won’t lose its top spot. It has three games left, including the SEC Championship because they have clinched the SEC West. Their next game is against the Chattanooga Mocs (Southern Conference), who I honestly have never heard of. That’s a lock right there. The Auburn and the SEC Championship are wins, and the Tide Roll on into the playoffs as the number one seed.

2.     Clemson

While the Tigers lost on Saturday to Pitt, I think they retain their spot at number 2. They have wins over several high-profile teams: Auburn, Louisville, and Florida State. They have 2 games left: at Wake Forest and versus South Carolina. Both of which are locks for a win. Then they would go to the ACC Championship, and they should not have a problem with either Virginia Tech or North Carolina (both of which were among the other ranked teams to lose).

3.     Winner of Michigan – Ohio State

The Big 10 East has multiple different scenarios, but I don’t think Penn State will win it though.

Michigan

• ·      Beats Ohio state
• ·      Both Ohio State AND Penn State lose 1 more game

Ohio State

• ·      Win’s out AND either Michigan wins out OR Penn State finishes 7-2 (in conference) or worse

Penn State

• ·      Win’s out AND Michigan loses again

So, with that in mind, the Big 10 East rests on the Michigan – Ohio State game. While both Wisconsin and Nebraska have done well, I don’t think either can beat Michigan or Ohio State. In fact, Ohio State has beaten both, and Michigan beat Wisconsin (they didn’t play Nebraska). Both Michigan and Ohio State are better than the number 4 seed.

4.     Washington

Washington is just as much of a lock as Alabama to make the playoffs as the 4^th seed. While their loss may worry some, but I don’t think it matters. As to why they will make the playoffs, there a few reasons. One, in the past, there hasn’t been a team from a non-Power 5 School. Furthermore, there has never been two teams from the same conference (SEC, Big 10, etc.). I don’t see that changing, and the Big 12 is horrible this year, and they won’t make it. Washington beat a great Stanford team to announce their forthcoming to the top ranks of college football. As well, they beat a good USC team, and have been a great story this year. Once they win the Pac-12 Championship, I think their spot in the College Football Playoff is locked in.

To conclude, I think that the rankings don’t change. Alabama (1) will play Washington (4) and Clemson (2) will play the winner of Michigan/Ohio State (3).