The Big Ten Championship and How it Affects the College Football Playoff

As I wrote about a few days ago, the Big 10 East would essentially be decided by the Michigan/Ohio State game. Prior to it, in order to win the division, to road to Indianapolis would look like this:

Michigan advances with a win
Ohio State advances with a win AND a Penn State loss
Penn State advances with a win AND an Ohio State win

This passed Saturday, Ohio State beat Michigan in double overtime, and Penn State beat Michigan State big.

That means that Penn State won the Big 10 East, and will play Wisconsin on Saturday, at 8 PM EST, with the chance to win the Big 10 outright for the first time since 1994 when Joe Paterno was coach.

Now that the Big 10 and all the other championships have been set, I think its time to look to the playoff standings. Assuming they win the conference championships, I think Alabama and Clemson are locks at one and two.

You may notice I left out the Washington Huskies. They play (I'm writing this right before the rankings come out on 11/29) the 9th ranked Colorado team. Do I think UW will lose, no. But I think Colorado has a better chance to beat UW then Florida to Alabama or Virginia Tech to Clemson.

As much as I think the winner of the Big 10 Championship should make it in, I can't hep but wonder if Michigan or Ohio State will make it in as the four seed, with the first three filling out as follows; Alabama, Clemson, Washington. But, first let's take a look at the four Big 10 team's big wins.

Penn State

• Ohio State
• Wisconsin (possibly)

Wisconsin

• LSU
• Nebraska
• Penn State (Possibly)

Michigan

• Colorado
• Wisconsin
• Penn State

Ohio State

• Oklahoma
• Wisconsin
• Nebraska
• Michigan

Personally, I don't think a team should be able to get into the College Football Playoff without winning their conference, let alone a conference championship appearance. So, that rules out Michigan, Ohio State and Nebraska. So, by my logic, the winner of the Big 10 Championship gets in. But, I think if the season ended today, Penn State would have the edge, solely because they beat Ohio State.

So, to solidify their spot, Penn State would need to win big. BUT, to do they RB Saquon Barkley to make a return (he hurt his ankle at the end of last weeks game) and play well.

Should that happen, and should Washington win, the seeding will be Alabama (1), Clemson (2), Washington (3), Penn State (4).

And, if Washington game is close and Penn State wins big, their seeds could very well be swapped.

My Thoughts on the Second, Third, and Fourth Ranked Teams Loosing

Note: I wrote this on 11/15/16 for Sports Illustrated Kids, and it wasn't published

The last time the number 2, 3, and 4 ranked teams in college football lost on the same day was October 19, 1985. But for the first time in over 3 decades, it happened again, on November 12, 2016.

On that day in 1985, in a 1 vs. 2 clash, Quarterback Jim Harbaugh’s second ranked Michigan Wolverines lost to first ranked Iowa, on a field goal as time expired. This time, Harbaugh was on the sideline, ranked third in the country, and lost to Iowa on a field goal as time expired. Only this time Iowa wasn’t ranked. The other differences? In 2016 the kick was 4 yards longer and made by a freshman as opposed to a sophomore.

How do these losses impact the college football playoff?

1.     Alabama

Alabama won’t lose its top spot. It has three games left, including the SEC Championship because they have clinched the SEC West. Their next game is against the Chattanooga Mocs (Southern Conference), who I honestly have never heard of. That’s a lock right there. The Auburn and the SEC Championship are wins, and the Tide Roll on into the playoffs as the number one seed.

2.     Clemson

While the Tigers lost on Saturday to Pitt, I think they retain their spot at number 2. They have wins over several high-profile teams: Auburn, Louisville, and Florida State. They have 2 games left: at Wake Forest and versus South Carolina. Both of which are locks for a win. Then they would go to the ACC Championship, and they should not have a problem with either Virginia Tech or North Carolina (both of which were among the other ranked teams to lose).

3.     Winner of Michigan – Ohio State

The Big 10 East has multiple different scenarios, but I don’t think Penn State will win it though.

Michigan

• ·      Beats Ohio state
• ·      Both Ohio State AND Penn State lose 1 more game

Ohio State

• ·      Win’s out AND either Michigan wins out OR Penn State finishes 7-2 (in conference) or worse

Penn State

• ·      Win’s out AND Michigan loses again

So, with that in mind, the Big 10 East rests on the Michigan – Ohio State game. While both Wisconsin and Nebraska have done well, I don’t think either can beat Michigan or Ohio State. In fact, Ohio State has beaten both, and Michigan beat Wisconsin (they didn’t play Nebraska). Both Michigan and Ohio State are better than the number 4 seed.

4.     Washington

Washington is just as much of a lock as Alabama to make the playoffs as the 4^th seed. While their loss may worry some, but I don’t think it matters. As to why they will make the playoffs, there a few reasons. One, in the past, there hasn’t been a team from a non-Power 5 School. Furthermore, there has never been two teams from the same conference (SEC, Big 10, etc.). I don’t see that changing, and the Big 12 is horrible this year, and they won’t make it. Washington beat a great Stanford team to announce their forthcoming to the top ranks of college football. As well, they beat a good USC team, and have been a great story this year. Once they win the Pac-12 Championship, I think their spot in the College Football Playoff is locked in.

To conclude, I think that the rankings don’t change. Alabama (1) will play Washington (4) and Clemson (2) will play the winner of Michigan/Ohio State (3).